Note publique d'information : La 4ème de couverture indique : "This textbook offers an introduction to the use of
probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing
approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty
and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in
applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods
with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basi ideas of probability, how to simulate
random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation.
The first four chapters use a lerge collection of probability distributions to simulete
a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated
investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and
multivariate normal random variables ; conditional expectation ; optimization of decision
variables, with dicussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees,
game theory, and adeverse selection ; risk sharing and finance ; dynamic models of
growth ; dynamic models of arrivals ; and model risk. New material in this second
edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk ; new
sections in every chapter ; many new end-of-chapter exercises ; and coverage of such
topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting,
and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software
used throughout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations
seamlessly in Excel."
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